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[Fizinfo] Stat Fiz Szeminarium

Chronological Thread 
  • From: StatFizSzeminar <statfiz AT>
  • To: fizinfo AT
  • Subject: [Fizinfo] Stat Fiz Szeminarium
  • Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2019 15:19:09 +0200

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ELTE TTK Fizikai Intézet

2019. október 16.



Ksenia Guseva

Carl von Ossietzky University

"The effect of intermittent upwelling
events on plankton blooms"

The larger scale the ocean's hydrodynamic
flow is characterized by the presence of
large eddies (vortices), which play a very
important role in phytoplankton ecosystems.
Another important large scale phenomenon is
upwelling, which brings a load of nutrients
to the surface, sometimes triggering algal
blooms. We investigate the effect of inter-
mittent upwelling on the biological community
in the presence of large eddies formed in the
wake of an island. We use a theoretical model
of this system by coupling a kinematic flow
field to a population dynamical model for
plankton growth. We observe plankton blooms
when nutrients are trapped by vortices, and
analyse how this dynamics depends on the
timing and intensity of upwelling events.


Gábor Drótos

University of the Balearic Islands and CSIC

"What the snapshot/pullback attractor of an
Earth system model can tell about climate
change: a case study about the ENSO--Indian
monsoon teleconnection"

The climate of a time instant under expli-
citly time-dependent forcing seems to be
most plausibly defined by the natural
probability measure of the corresponding
snapshot attractor, and climate change is
described by the time evolution of this
probability measure. This probability measure
is numerically represented by an ensemble
of trajectories (realizations) emanating
from different initial conditions, but only
after memory loss takes place. Recently,
communities in Earth system modeling have
started to develop `initial-condition large
ensembles' in state-of-the-art models. I
will present a statistical analysis about
the change of a correlation coefficient
relating the El Nino--Southern Oscillation
and the Indian monsoon in two of these
`large ensembles', and illustrate that the
proper analysis may lead to conclusions
qualitatively different from those relying
on the time evolution of a single realization,
questioning conclusions drawn about
observations in the literature.

1117, Budapest, Pázmány P. sétány 1/A, Északi tömb 2.54

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