ELFT HÍRADÓ

[szpl <szpl AT metal.elte.hu>]

ELTE Fizikai Intézet

                                ORTVAY KOLLOKVIUM

                    2020. március 5., csütörtök, 15:00-kor
                Az ELTE Pázmány Péter s. 1/A alatti épületében
                           földszinti 0.81 előadóban


                                    Tél Tamás
                        (ELTE-TTK Elméleti Fizikai Tanszék)

                On the theory of parallel climate realizations

Kivonatos ismertetés:
Based on the theory of ``snapshot/pullback attractors'', we show that 
important
features of the climate change we are observing can be understood by imagining
many replicas of the Earth that are not interacting with each other. Their 
climate systems evolve in parallel, but not in the same way, although they all 
obey the same physical laws, in harmony with the chaotic-like nature of the 
climate dynamics. These parallel climate realizations evolving in time can be 
considered as elements of an ensemble. We argue that the contingency of our 
Earth's climate system is characterized by the multiplicity of parallel climate 
realizations rather than by the variability we experience in a time series of 
our observed past. The natural distribution on the snapshot attractor enables 
one to determine averages and other statistical quantifiers of the climate at 
any instant of time. In this talk, we review the basic idea for climate changes 
associated with monotonic trends, and illustrate the large number of possible
applications.