ELFT HÍRADÓ

[Stat Phys Group <statfiz AT poe.elte.hu>]

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    #                ELTE TTK  Fizikai Tanszekcsoport                 #
    #                STATISZTIKUS FIZIKAI SZEMINARIUM                 #
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    #                         Celso Grebogi                           # 
    #                      Instituto de Fisica                        #
    #                    Universita de Sao Paulo                      #
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    #                     Chaos and Complexity:                       #  
    #                The Validity of Dynamical Models                 # 
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    #             2001. junius 15. (pentek) de. 11. ora               #
    #     1117 Bp. Pazmany P. setany 1A, 2. emelet, 2.54-es terem     #
    #       www oldal: http://poe.elte.hu/~statfiz/statfiz.html       #
    #     A hirdetmeny mint ps allomany a www oldalrol letoltheto.    #
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Abstract:

Natural systems are often made up of many parts which are
interconnected and coupled in an intricate and complex manner. The
modification of any one of them does affect most of them.
Furthermore, because a complex system has the property that many
competing behaviours are possible, to know and predict which one will
take over and be realized when one modifies any part of the system is
a major scientific and technological task. In order to undertake that,
scientists and engineers rely heavily on mathematical deterministic
models. The success of these models depends on whether they are able
to predict the future bahavior of the system, or, in another words, on
whether the solutions of the models can approximate the dynamics of
the natural system. I will argue that dynamical difficulties do arise
in many chaotic and complex systems in such a way that no model of the
system is able to make reasonably long prediction that is realized by
nature.  Relevant examples to the system Earth will be suggested.