ELFT HÍRADÓ

[Gyorgy Karolyi <karolyi AT tas.me.bme.hu>]

M E G H Í V Ó

2005. július 6-án, szerdán, 15:15 órakor 
a BME Központi épület, I. emelet 65-ben szemináriumot tartunk. 

Az előadás címe:
Can and should the probability of collapse in future earthquakes be
predicted?

Előadó: 
Helmut Krawinkler
a Stanford Egyetem professzora.

Abstract

The primary objective of earthquake resistant design is to provide adequate
life safety, and it is generally acknowledged that complete or partial
collapse is the primary (but not the only) source of loss of lives in severe
earthquakes. Collapse is also a contributor to direct and indirect monetary
losses, and for older buildings with non-conforming structural systems it is
a major contributor to losses. 

The basic ingredient for probabilistic collapse prediction is the collapse
fragility curve, which expresses the probability of collapse as a function
of a ground motion intensity measure.  There are many challenges in
predicting a structure's collapse fragility curve analytically, ranging from
selecting appropriate ground motions for collapse analysis to developing
appropriate analytical models of structural components that represent all
important deterioration characteristics contributing to loss of strength and
stiffness.

The seminar presents a consistent approach for predicting collapse and
addresses the challenges identified in the previous paragraph.  It discusses
how collapse fragility curves can be employed for collapse performance
assessment and for guiding up-front design decisions based on a targeted
tolerable probability of collapse.

A szemináriumra tisztelettel meghívom.

2005. június 15.

Domokos Gábor
tanszékvezető, egyetemi tanár
BME Szilárdságtani és Tartószerkezeti Tanszék