ELFT HÍRADÓ

["Laszlo E. Szabo" <leszabo AT hps.elte.hu>]

Department of History and Philosophy of Science
Eotvos University
Budapest, Pazmany P. setany 1/A

PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE SEMINAR
(http://hps.elte.hu/seminar)
________________________________________________
8 October 4:00 PM 6th floor 6.54
(Language: English, except all participants speak Hungarian)

L a s z l o   E.   S z a b o

Theoretical Physics Research Group of HAS
Department of History and Philosophy Science
Eötvös University, Budapest

A Physicalist Interpretation of Probability

There is no such property of an event as its "probability." Rather, I
argue that probability is a derivative concept, supervening on physical
quantities characterizing the state of affairs corresponding to the
event in question. The term "probability" can be used only collectively:

it means different dimensionless [0,1]-valued physical quantities
(measures) in the different particular situations. I also argue that
probability is not the limiting value of relative frequency, and not
even necessarily related to the notion of frequency. In some cases, the
conditions of the sequential repetitions of a particular situation are
such, however, that the probability (the corresponding physical
quantity) is approximately equal to the relative frequency of the event
in question. Sometimes we do not know the value of the physical quantity

X, corresponding to the probability of an event A. In this case, if we
are convinced about the relationship between X and the relative
frequency of A, we can measure X by counting the relative frequency of
A. Furthermore, I will argue that probability, as a derivative concept,
has nothing to do with (objective) indeterminism and, on the other hand,

has nothing to do with "lack of knowledge," even if world is
deterministic.




The organizer of the seminar: László E. Szabó

--
Laszlo E. Szabo
Department of Theoretical Physics
Department of History and Philosophy of Science
Eotvos University, Budapest
H-1518 Budapest, Pf. 32, Hungary
Phone/Fax: (36-1)372-2924
Home: (36-1) 200-7318
Mobil/SMS: (36) 20-366-1172
http://hps.elte.hu/~leszabo